09/17/2008
Predicting the future of business, especially a particular industry, is not the easiest thing to do. We can look at trends and tradition and what the forecast are regarding the population, technology, and funding sources, but at the end of the day we really don’t know what will happen. To use a sports analogy, “that’s why they play the game”. So let’s tip off…
The Consumer
The modern day end user is changing how they think when it comes to deciding what product is best for their circumstances and this transformation is happening right before our eyes. Product information is everywhere, be it the internet, consumer groups, or even direct advertising. Consumers are starting to wrestle with the idea of choice. The idea that consumers are stronger together than we are apart is taking shape. There will soon be a battle before the health care industry on who controls the information. The medical model will start to erode striping away the controlled information from the professional to anyone who chooses to access it. The prescription drug company has been doing it for years. I personally never heard of any of the drugs mentioned on television until the prescription drug company took information out of the physician’s control and put it out on cable. I now take Nexium and Cialis (don’t ask me to explain the two separate tubs commercial). My point being we will all need to work together and that includes the health care professionals, social workers, consumers, and all funding sources, public and private.
Are there really enough consumers out there to make a difference? I know numbers are not always an interesting read but try and stay with me for a moment. We can not always rely on the trends of the past. For instance, in 2000, 35 million people 65 years of age and over were counted in the United States. This represented a 12% increase since 1990, when 31.2 million older people were counted. Although the number of people 65 years and over increased between 1990 and 2000, their proportion of the total population dropped from 12.6% in 1990 to 12.4% in 2000. These numbers DO NOT represent the next ten years and should not be relied on as a forecast.
Enter the baby boomers that are turning 50 years old in this country every six to seven seconds. Unfortunately, if you are 50 years old or younger Medicare is projected to run out of money by the time of your retirement. Why? We are the verge of a virtual explosion for the 65 years and older group. For instance, it is projected that the 65 years and over population in 2010 will reach 40.2 million, 2015 we will reach 46.7 million, and by 2020 nearly 55 million. These aren’t your everyday consumers, however. This generation invented “bang for your buck”. This consumer group demands the best and will pay for it. Speaking of bucks, next year the boomers start cashing out their 401k’s. My point is lots of people with lots of money that are going to demand lots of customer service. No cheap product, no self-serve gas, and no acceptance of a ‘wink and a nod’ this chair was made for you. Research and questions will follow this consumer during the transaction and the provider better well be versed in all products and have an answer that will satisfy them.
Education
In our current environment there is a push for educating the end user. Education will occur naturally when the 65 years and over bring their wisdom to the dance. Not only is this group the most active voting block, but they will be the smartest and most educated seniors ever; demanding to be involved in their health care decisions and that the government must be accountable to them when funding their earned benefits. I will, and do, forecast that when the time comes AARP will be taking up industry issues, sooner than later, and be the most important and vocal voice in the health care industry.
Caregivers are largely unorganized and still struggle as being recognized as professionals. What they do in the everyday life of a senior, or person with a disability is immeasurable. Caregivers will be playing a larger role in the next ten years as boomers request to stay at home and utilize community-based services. Two educated minds are better than one and the information being provided for all to absorb is, and will be, in abundance giving greater access to products, methods, and customized care.
Because of such voting power within the 65 years and over crowd, coupled with the 54 million people with disabilities, Congress will be forced to be educated on the shifting away of the medical model and providing greater access to information and technology. Evidence based research and practice will dominate the complex rehabilitation category.
The Provider
Great opportunities lie ahead for the industry and for the provider in particular. Currently, and reporting on 2007 Medicare numbers only, a little over 5,000 providers furnished millions of end users with power mobility and the government flipped out a little over a billion dollars. In the near future the government will be pouring out billions (that’s right with an “s”) into an industry that will desperately need to keep up with the aging population. At the end of the day government involvement in our business may not be as bad as one would think. What!?! Really, regulation can be good? Sure, it can curve fraud and abuse, give structure like officially recognizing a category such as complex rehabilitation, and keep a finger on the pulse of the industry concerning the growth of technology in specific categories.
The role of the provider in the medical model will start to diminish and begin to flourish in the consumer market. Maybe not so much in the category of complex rehabilitation due to the involvement of clinics and the detailed service component found in maintaining complex equipment, but definitely for those 65 years and older crowd requiring sit and go mobility. Business and marketing plans will need to be adjusted, new partnerships formed, but the payoff will be through the roof!
Shows such as MedTrade will become less relevant due to the cost of traveling and the easy access to information. Manufactures provide the show’s “deals” regardless if you are at the show or not. A provider can log on and watch live streaming of the show in some booths. It’s not like it was in the 80’s when to remain on the cutting edge, get a great deal and see the latest and greatest product, you had to send half your staff to a show across the country. Networking is still an advantage and these type shows and can be a place to take classes for CEU’s, or even a RESNA exam, but if you miss the show this year you can be caught up on all the highlights, plus an opinion or two on MedTrade blogs, via the internet or by your local rep over dinner.
The Funding Source
Traditionally the government has a hard time keeping up with technology, however; the 65 years and older crowd are quite comfortable with technology and will wish it to be a covered item. Unfortunately, the nation’s largest health insurance program is in danger. A report released by the Medicare and Social Security trustees stated that the Medicare program will be broke by 2019. With the rapid decline in the number of workers per beneficiary, rise in national health care spending, aging baby boom generation, Congress will be forced to soon make some really tough decisions regarding Medicare. Reform will need to occur and it will need to occur on a couple of fronts. Expectations of the government, health car professional, as well as the provider, will increase.
First and foremost, Congress will have no choice but to face the music and be forced to raise taxes, increase premiums, cut money from the federal budget, or confront the restructure of Medicare and the medical model which is outdated. Without a public outcry the manipulation of funds will continue. Ah, but there will be an outcry, which leads to point number two. The shear numbers of the 65 year and older crowd will dictate reform. Reform in the medical model, prices, quality of care and quality of product, free information and education, customer service, and a request for absolute control over their health care decisions. Election years are the time to enact such a battle cry and there will always be candidate ready and willing to listen to the concerns.
Now for the best part. Cash. Right out of the consumer’s pocket and in to your account. But not so fast, as mentioned before, this educated consumer is going to want to look at a specific model. “Does this come with tilt,”? he or she may ask. “How about financing?” We will see such a big difference between consumer sit and go power and complex rehabilitation that your everyday Joe looking to put their parents in a product will know the difference between the two.
Conclusion
If you thought about getting out of the business due to recent events, think again. A change here, a tweak there, and suddenly you are prepared to meet a market demand that will be starving for quality product and service, passing over their money without even thinking about it. You will be the driver of a bigger and better more effective machine of a business. Partnerships will prosper between consumer organizations, business, and the government. New leaders will emerge embracing the changes of the future, paradigm shifts in thinking will occur as it did when tilt and recline hit the market. The best part, and why most of us got in the market to begin with, you will be providing a service to humanity, providing everyday quality of life that only politicians can promise to deliver. Create change, make money, and someday retire with a smile on your face. I have never been one to get on the bandwagon, but when the bandwagon came by the house, I got on!